Fig. 1

Data on weekly reported cases per thousand in the country of origin (solid red curves) and observed rates of infection among arrivals to New Zealand (blue curves with open circles) in the 19 fully modelled countries. To make these plots clearer, infection rates among arrivals were smoothed using a 5-point smoother for arriving cases (weights \(\frac{1}{8}, \frac{1}{4}, \frac{1}{4},\frac{1}{4},\frac{1}{8}\)). For an equivalent set of graphs without smoothing, see Additional file 1: Fig. S2