Fig. 2

Number of arriving cases from the 6 fully modelled countries with the largest numbers of arrivals (blue). The thick red lines show the fitted model, the thin red lines show the 50% confidence interval around this fit, and the purple dashed lines show the 50% prediction interval. Model fitted to data from 25 January to 22 August 2021. Shaded grey region shows a 12-week forecast period alongside actual data for the first 5 weeks of the forecast period (white squares)