Fig. 4

One step ahead predictions for infection rates among arriving cases for the 6 fully modelled countries with the highest numbers of arrivals. Observed rates are shown in blue, the thick green lines show the one step ahead predictions with 50% confidence intervals (thin green lines) and 50% prediction intervals (dashed green lines). Model fitted to data from 25 January to 22 August 2021. Shaded grey region shows a 5-week forecast period alongside actual data for the first 5 weeks of the forecast period (white squares)