Fig. 5

a Number of infected arrivals and b infection rate per 1000 arrivals aggregated over all countries, showing the model’s central estimate (bold red line), 50% confidence interval (thin red lines) and 50% prediction (dashed purple lines). Model fitted to data from 25 January to 22 August 2021. Shaded grey region shows a 12-week forecast period alongside actual data for the first 5 weeks of the forecast period (white squares)