Fig. 1
From: When are predictions useful? A new method for evaluating epidemic forecasts
Illustrated here are facility-level forecasts over two prediction horizons for one hospital: the University of Maryland Medical Center. The top and bottom rows both show the same forecasts, truth data, and \(\delta\) (utility threshold) region. The top row displays these values normally, whereas the bottom row shows how far each value deviates from the truth. The middle row displays the WCIS, aligned with the data in the other rows. (Note that the facility-level analysis includes more prediction intervals and more dates than are shown in this figure, the extent of both displayed here are reduced for clarity)