Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries

Galmiche, Simon; Coustaury, Camille; Charniga, Kelly; Grant, Rebecca; Cauchemez, Simon; Fontanet, Arnaud

doi:10.1186/s44263-024-00103-z

Table 1 Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of the associations between national demographic/health indicators and cumulative excess mortality across 13 Western European countries

From: Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries

Indicator	Time period considered for age- and sex-standardized cumulative excess mortality rate	Correlation	p-value
Socio-economic indicators
Population at risk of poverty	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.55	0.05
Population at risk of poverty and social exclusion	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.52	0.07
Gini index	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.52	0.07
Tertiary education attainment	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	− 0.30	0.31
Demographic indicators
Population density	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.65	0.02
Population living in urban area	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.30	0.32
Household size	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.40	0.18
Number of contacts 65 +	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.34	0.26
Number of contacts 65 + with younger individuals	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.20	0.50
Trust in government 2019	27 January 2020–28 June 2020	− 0.77	0.002
Trust in government 2020	29 June 2020–27 June 2021	− 0.31	0.31
International arrivals 2020	27 January 2020–03 January 2021	0.34	0.25
International arrivals 2021	04 January 2021–02 January 2022	0.68	0.02
Health status
Multimorbidity (at least two conditions)	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.40	0.29
Daily smokers	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.31	0.30
Diabetes	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	− 0.18	0.56
Obesity	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	− 0.01	0.97
Healthcare system
Treatable mortality	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.25	0.40
Preventable mortality	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.32	0.28
Long-term care facilities bed capacity	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.17	0.60
Intensive care unit (ICU) beds	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.25	0.40
Number of physicians per capita	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	− 0.46	0.12
Number of nurses per capita	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	− 0.35	0.24
Unmet medical need	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.14	0.65
Out-of-pocket health expenditures	27 January 2020–03 July 2022	0.37	0.22
NPI implementation
Number of hospital admission at time of NPI implementation: Spring 2020 wave	27 January 2020–28 June 2020	0.65	0.03
Number of hospital admission at time of NPI implementation: Fall 2020 wave	28 September 2020–27 December 2020	0.65	0.04
COVID-19 vaccine coverage
First-dose vaccination coverage 80 + — area under the curve from 01 February 2021 to 30 June 2021	01 March 2021–27 June 2021	− 0.76	0.002
First booster vaccination coverage 80 + — area under the curve from 01 October 2021 to 30 May 2022	01 November 2021–26 June 2022	− 0.03	0.91

Legend: No adjustment for the performance of multiple statistical tests. For international arrivals (2020, 2021, and 2022), we considered cumulative excess mortality over the corresponding calendar year. For trust in government 2019, we considered cumulative excess mortality for the first period of interest (that is, the first half of 2020), while for trust in government 2020, we considered cumulative excess mortality for the second period of interest (from the second half of 2020 to the end of the first half of 2021)

Back to article page

ISSN: 2731-913X

Contact us

Submission enquiries: bmcglobalpublichealth@biomedcentral.com
General enquiries: info@biomedcentral.com

BMC Global and Public Health

Contact us