Fig. 5

The predicted probability of reporting diphtheria presence (gray lines) for each administrative level 1 (ADM1) by the log-transformed number of conflict-related fatalities in theprevious 4 years. Lines are shifted left or right depending on their random intercepts for each country and ADM1. Orange points along the top indicate the observed data indicating ADM1 regions with reported diphtheria presence. Purple points along the bottom of the graph indicate observed ADM1 regions with diphtheria absent status. To illustrate a single model-predicted probability of diphtheria presence for each ADM1 region, vaccination rates were set to the median for each location